The e-commerce landscape, as always, is changing fast. Bank of America's recent analysis points to Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify as the big dogs, all showing impressive growth. Amazon's US GMV (excluding Whole Foods) jumped 13% year-over-year in Q3 2025, grabbing a 44.5% share of the US e-commerce pie. Walmart's online sales spiked 28%, and Shopify's GMV grew 30%. Numbers look good, right?
The AI and Gambling Wildcard
But here's where things get interesting, and potentially troublesome. BofA also dropped a report highlighting how prediction markets and sports gambling sites could become a credit risk. The worry? Consumers racking up debt and defaulting on loans thanks to "easy access and gamified interfaces." BofA Says Prediction Markets Could Pressure Credit Quality
And this is where e-commerce intersects with a potentially dangerous trend. Walmart is already testing new advertising formats within its AI shopping assistant, Sparky. Robinhood launched prediction markets, seeing contract volume double each quarter. The line between shopping, investing, and gambling is blurring, and fast.
The prediction market Polymarket received an approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that positions the company to return to the United States under a fully regulated exchange structure.
It’s not just sports betting anymore. People are wagering on everything, from celebrity marriages to which AI model will win the algorithm wars. Robinhood's CEO, Vlad Tenev, even thinks this could be "one of the largest asset classes" because you can "price risk in pretty much anything." I've looked at hundreds of these market analyses, and that statement is unusually optimistic, even for a CEO.
The Downward Spiral: From "Add to Cart" to Credit Default
Here's how it could play out: Someone uses Sparky to find a new jacket, sees a "limited time offer," and throws it on a credit card. Maybe they also drop a few bucks on a prediction market, thinking they can double their money. But what happens when that bet goes south? Or when the credit card bill comes due?
The BofA strategists point out that this "convergence of entertainment and speculative finance signals heightened behavioral risk." Translation: people are more likely to make dumb financial decisions when they're having "fun." The bank is concerned about increased delinquencies and an impact on earnings for issuers and subprime lenders. That's the polite way of saying they expect people to default on their debts.
Dell is making huge strides in the AI server market. Management at Dell Technologies said the company is benefiting from rising demand for its AI servers that are used in data centers around the world. As part of its latest earnings report, Dell raised its forecast for AI server sales this year to $25 billion from $20 billion previously. Bank of America (BAC) says that Dell Technologies’ (DELL) revenue from its artificial intelligence (AI) servers and other AI infrastructure products could double in coming years. Dell’s (DELL) AI Revenue Could Double, Says Bank of America
The question is, will those advances be offset by a drag on consumer spending driven by AI-enhanced impulse purchases and gambling losses?
Algorithmic Temptation: A New Kind of Debt Trap
The real danger here isn't just the gambling itself, but the combination of easy credit, AI-driven marketing, and the gamification of finance. It's a perfect storm brewing for consumers who are already stretched thin.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. The e-commerce companies are touting AI as a way to improve the shopping experience, but what if it actually hurts their customers' financial health? What if "personalized recommendations" become just another way to push people deeper into debt?
Too Much Hype, Not Enough Reality?
The e-commerce giants are patting themselves on the back for faster delivery speeds and expanded service offerings. But are they also considering the potential consequences of their AI-powered sales tactics? Are they tracking how many of their customers are also using prediction markets? Probably not.
It boils down to this: Are we building a future where algorithms are optimized for sales, regardless of the human cost? Are we sacrificing financial stability for the sake of a few extra percentage points of GMV growth?
The House Always Wins (Especially with AI)
The banks are starting to worry, and frankly, so am I. The e-commerce boom has been built on convenience and accessibility. But if it's also fueling a rise in consumer debt and financial instability, then maybe it's time to hit the pause button.